Djokovic vs Medvedev: prediction for the US Open match

Djokovic vs Medvedev: prediction for the US Open match

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev face off in the US Open final this Sunday. Can Djokovic win his fourth Major this year? Our answer is in the prediction below.

Novak Djokovic

This is probably the most important match of the year for Novak Djokovic. If he wins on Sunday, he will capture the Grand Slam, which only five tennis players had done before. We must admit, that Djokovic didn't have an easy campaign at this US Open. In almost all matches he lost a set against his opponents. However, that didn't stop him from crushing the opponents in the end, and his victories were very confident. For instance, he defeated Alexander Zverev for a margin of 6 games, even though he lost two sets against the German. 

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev has played in the US Open final before. In 2019, he lost to Rafael Nadal in a bitter struggle. He couldn't reach the final last year, as he lost to the future champion Dominic Thiem in the semifinals. This time, Medvedev had a rather comfortable walk to the final and was lucky with the draw: none of his opponents were from the Top 10, and only Auger Aliassime is ranked in the Top 20. Medvedev lost a set only once, against Botik van de Zandshulp, and in all of his other matches, the Russian won in three straight sets. 

Statistics tips

Each player to win a set

In 5 out of 6 latest matches of Djokovic, the opponents exchanged winning sets.

Total over 6,5 breaks

In 3 of Djokovic's last 4 matches, there were at least 7 breaks.

1st set: total over 9,5 games

At least 10 games were played in the first set in 3 of Djokovic's last 4 matches.


Earlier this year, Djokovic outplayed Medvedev in the Australian Open final with a margin of 10 games. Perhaps this time we won't witness such a crushing defeat, as Medvedev is in much better shape, but we don't expect the Russian to win this match. Despite losing sets in all but one match at this tournament, the Serbian tennis player looked very confident. He even defeated Alexander Zverev with a six-game difference. Medvedev is able to win a set, but we predict Djokovic to claim the trophy.

Our prediction -Djokovic to win with a handicap of (-3.5) games.

Prediction: Handicap (-3,5) to Djokovic

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We expect a long match. Djokovic has got only one three-set win at this US Open, and so Medvedev can win a set or maybe two. We suggest betting on the total over.

Second wager – total over 35,5 games.

Prediction: Total over 35,5

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